Solving the climate crisis, not war, should be the world’s top priority, one of the world’s top climate scientists said on Sunday. In an interview with Jayashree Nandi, Frederick Otto, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London, said India should be prepared to deal with intense heat and related disasters. The climate emergency is exacerbating floods, droughts and heavy rains around the world, says a leading climate attribution researcher who is looking into the causes of flooding in Dubai due to excessive rainfall. Edited excerpts:
Are you conducting a climate attribution study on rainfall events in Dubai? When can we expect results?
We have started a study to find out how much more rainfall is being caused in Dubai as a result of climate change. We hope to publish the study on Thursday or Friday.
Can you give an example of how climate change is exacerbating heavy rainfall and storms? Can you give an example of how an arid region is becoming drier and at the same time experiencing unprecedented flooding?
Late last year, heavy rains hit Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, causing devastating floods. More than 300 people were killed and millions were displaced. Our research finds climate change is doubling the intensity of rainfall. The rains follow a two-and-a-half-year drought in the same area. Crop failures have left tens of millions of people facing food shortages. We found that climate change is making droughts at least 100 times more severe and more severe.
It is not unusual for an area to be continuously affected by extreme weather events of this nature. In many parts of the world, summers are getting hotter, increasing the risk of heatwaves, fires and droughts, while winters are getting wetter, increasing the risk of devastating floods.
Global temperatures have hit record highs for 10 consecutive months. Are we also seeing an increase in extreme weather events during this period?
There are currently no universal definitions or thresholds for the different types of extreme weather, and there are no studies looking at the number of extreme weather events in the last year or so. However, it is almost certain that the number of extreme weather events globally increased last year simply because it was the hottest year on record. High temperatures greatly increase the likelihood of heat waves, droughts, wildfires and heavy rainfall.
In the coming years, we are likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold set out in the Paris Agreement. How should the world cope with climate extremes?
It is worth noting that the 1.5°C target is a political goal. Yes, extreme weather events and other impacts of climate change (such as melting glaciers) will be more severe at 1.5 degrees Celsius than now, or at 1.3 degrees Celsius or 1.4 degrees Celsius. But at the same time, if warming continues to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world will not end. What we do know is that with even a small amount of warming, life on Earth will become more dangerous, expensive and unpredictable.
It is much safer to keep the temperature at 1.5, 1.6 or 1.7 degrees Celsius than 2 degrees Celsius. So if we do go over 1.5 degrees Celsius, people should not feel that life on Earth is doomed, but should strive not to exceed it and perhaps eventually reach 1.6 degrees Celsius, rather than burying their heads in the sand and continuing to take very little action, eventually reaching 1.6 degrees Celsius.
The world is extremely vulnerable to climate extremes. We know this because many people are still dying from heat waves, floods, fires and storms. Buildings continue to be destroyed. Farms continue to be wiped out. It’s clear that we are not adapting to climate change fast enough. Therefore, in addition to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the world also needs to become more resilient to extreme weather.
We know that emissions are continuing to increase, rather than the 43% reduction by 2030 recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. What message do you want to send to the international community, which is preoccupied with wars and other geopolitical issues?
Climate change doesn’t stop during war. Climate change is not another problem besides the cost of living crisis. It is fully intertwined with other crises, and stopping the climate crisis from getting worse will help, not hinder, solutions to other crises and make life cheaper, healthier and safer for all. As an existential risk to humanity, climate change must become a top priority for the world. This is a long-term problem that requires long-term solutions.
The most important thing the world needs to do is to stop burning fossil fuels and replace them with renewable energy. If we continue to burn oil, gas and coal, world temperatures will continue to rise, extreme weather events will continue to intensify, vulnerable people will continue to die, and food prices for everyone will continue to rise sharply.
How vulnerable is India to climate extremes? What adaptation measures are needed for the most vulnerable groups and when?
Heat is a huge challenge for India as millions of people live in poverty and summers are extremely hot. Heat waves are the deadliest type of extreme weather. They are often called silent killers. Unlike fires or floods, the effects of heat waves are not obvious, and statistics on heat-related deaths are not regularly recorded.
Last April, an intense and humid heat wave hit India. While the total number of deaths related to that heat wave is unknown, it’s likely that hundreds or even thousands of people died. In Europe, where the climate is less hot and the population is less exposed, 70,000 people die from heat in a single year. In India, our research found that human-caused climate change has increased the likelihood of heat waves by at least 30 times and increased temperatures by at least 2 degrees Celsius. As the climate warms, similar heat waves in India, with temperatures well above 40 degrees Celsius, will become increasingly hotter, so India needs to be prepared.
Heat Action Plans are highly effective in reducing heat-related deaths. The Heat Action Plan sets out actions that can be taken before and during dangerous heat. These include developing early warning systems and awareness campaigns, rearranging the working hours of vulnerable workers, changing school hours and setting up temporary stations to give the public access to drinking water and first aid. Heat action plans have been drawn up in parts of India. Implementation of the Heat Action Plan has led to a reduction in heat-related deaths in Ahmedabad and Odisha. Every city and region in India affected by extreme heat should have a heat action plan.
You said last week that the unprecedented rainfall in Dubai on April 15 was not caused by artificial rainfall, but by the impact of climate change. Why?
Due to artificial rainfall, Dubai did not experience the worst rainfall in 75 years. This happens because a huge rainfall system forms over the Arabian Sea, causing extreme rainfall. When we talk about heavy rainfall, we need to talk about climate change. Focusing on cloud seeding is misleading. As the climate warms, rainfall around the world becomes heavier because the warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture.
Cloud seeding cannot create clouds from nothing, nor can it turn small clouds into giant thunderstorms. It only causes water already in the sky to condense faster and drip in some places. So first, you need moisture. Without it, there would be no cloud.
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