Hold Azerbaijan accountable before hosting the next UN climate conference

Azerbaijan was selected last year to host the upcoming United Nations Climate Conference (COP29) in November. This follows a trend of repressive oil states pushing for meetings as Egypt hosts COP27 and the United Arab Emirates hosts COP28. The United Nations advocates a human rights-centered approach to climate change. However, activists, journalists and others have expressed skepticism about the United Nations’ choice to hold COP29 in the capital, Baku, given Azerbaijan’s questionable commitment to protecting the environment and its repressive approach to governance.

The history of Azerbaijan’s oil industry dates back to the 19th century. In 1846, Azerbaijan developed the world’s first mechanically drilled oil well at Bibiheybat in the Baku region. The Soviet Union accelerated the development of the region’s oil industry, and in 1951, the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic became the site of the world’s first offshore oil platform. In the 1960s, several new oil and gas fields were discovered in Azerbaijan, doubling the country’s oil resources and tripling its gas resources.

Since independence in 1991, Baku has taken advantage of Azerbaijan’s abundant natural gas reserves, working with international companies such as BP to supply natural gas to global markets. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, as Europe gradually turned away from Russian energy, Azerbaijan stepped up and pledged to double its natural gas exports to Europe in 2027.

Oil and gas exports currently account for approximately 90% of Azerbaijan’s exports and 60% of the state budget. According to statistics from the International Energy Agency, oil and natural gas account for more than 98% of Azerbaijan’s total energy supply. Furthermore, despite its advocacy of managing environmental impacts, Azerbaijan’s flagship state-owned energy company SOCAR is one of the lowest-ranked companies in the World Benchmark Alliance’s oil and gas benchmark rankings.

Azerbaijan has huge renewable energy potential and resources, including high-quality solar and wind energy resources and huge biomass, geothermal and hydropower prospects. However, Baku has fallen short in deploying such resources and has failed to meet the climate commitments approved in the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement.

Azerbaijan sets lofty goals to reduce CO2 emissions₂ With emissions reduced by 35% by 2030 and 40% by 2050, the fossil fuel-dependent country is still far from reaching these goals. The World Bank attributes Baku’s lack of success to the non-oil private sector being hampered by multiple constraints, including bottlenecks in access to skilled labor and capital and market competition, as state-owned enterprises such as SOCAR dominate the market.

Baku’s reliance on fossil fuels comes with a poor human rights record. Freedom House classified Azerbaijan as “not free” in its “Freedom in the World 2024” report, with a score of 7 out of 100 – lower than Somalia and Saudi Arabia. Political rights do not actually exist. Freedom-related issues got worse after Baku carried out ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Several independent journalists have faced a crackdown on accusations of undermining President Ilham Aliyev’s government.

Environmental and anti-corruption activists in Azerbaijan have been affected by government crackdowns. Last year, there were reports that Azerbaijani police detained, beat, threatened or hindered the work of several journalists covering environmental protests. Among them is Dr. Gubad Ibadoghlu, an academic and political activist who focuses on the fossil fuel industry and often questions why Azerbaijan’s vast fossil fuel resources are not invested in making the country more prosperous and democracy. Furthermore, he considered it “unrealistic” to rely on Azerbaijani gas as a substitute for Russian supplies, with Azerbaijan distorting data and ultimately reselling Russian gas to Europe.

In 2023, Ibadoglu published a paper titled “A New Gas Deal for European Energy Security with Azerbaijan: Aspirations and Realities,” questioning European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s description of Azerbaijan as “reliable and A trustworthy partner”. He believes Azerbaijan is actually quite unreliable as a business partner, as the country ranks extremely low on Transparency International’s corruption index, below Russia.

In 2023, Ibadoglu and his wife were arrested with arbitrary violence and later released. During his detention, Ibadoglu, like other Azerbaijani political prisoners, was treated inhumanely. “Conditions in detention facilities are appalling,” he wrote in a letter to his family. Ibadoglu’s health deteriorated rapidly as Azerbaijani authorities refused to provide him with the necessary treatment for his serious condition.

Members of the U.S. Congress and the European Parliament have condemned Ibadoglu’s treatment and called for his release, but there is no sign he will be released soon. Ahead of COP29, the international community must pressure Azerbaijan to release Ibadoglu and other activists if it hopes to enhance its global reputation. Refusal to engage in Azerbaijan’s “caviar diplomacy” is necessary to maintain an objective view of Azerbaijan’s repression and hold its government accountable.

Baku’s sin lies not only in its environmental record but also in its authoritarian treatment of its citizens, including environmental activists and protesters. COP29 must not be allowed to become an opportunity to build credibility for a regime that continues to suppress the voices of free thinkers.

Alex Little is a Georgia Tech master’s degree graduate specializing in Russian and Central Asian affairs. He is also a contributor to Young Voices.