Regulators overseeing North America’s power grid have warned that the rapid retirement of coal-fired generation and increasing reliance on wind and solar power puts large swaths of the United States at risk of blackouts during heat waves and cold snaps.
The latest report states that this assessment provides clear evidence of growing concerns about resource adequacy over the next decade. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) conducts its annual long-term assessment of potential power shortages over the next decade. NERC said in its latest long-term assessment released on Wednesday that a priority action to ensure greater grid reliability is to increase natural gas supply infrastructure.
Over the past several years, NERC’s long-term assessments have reported an increasing risk of power shortages during periods of high demand due to increased dependence on weather for wind and solar generation and the growing demand for electricity from electric vehicles. Electrification of centers and homes.
natural gas dependence
Retired mechanical engineer Kevin Kilty told Just The News that grid assessment groups such as NERC and similar national organizations tend to be very cautious about the language used in their reports. They use euphemisms that sound mild, and they don’t want to upset politicians. Kilti said political types are loud and aggressive.
While assessments from previous years have talked about the need for dispatchable power, they have avoided specifics. This year’s review prioritizes fossil fuel infrastructure for the first time to address the growing problem.
The report explains that in sub-freezing temperatures, natural gas supplies to generators can be disrupted as people use more natural gas to heat their homes. The problem is exacerbated by changes in the mix of dispatchable resources, which are generators that do not have to rely on random weather conditions to generate electricity, such as coal, natural gas and nuclear power.
NERC warned that the potential for power shortages is growing as the U.S. closes coal-fired power plants and increasingly relies on natural gas generators. The U.S. grid has never been more reliant on natural gas for electricity generation than it is today, with wind and solar resources insufficient to meet demand. The report notes that periods of low wind are another example of potentially energy-limiting conditions if the resource mix is not adequately balanced with dispatchable resources to prevent power shortages.
The report said natural gas deliveries to generators were disrupted the past two winters, causing energy shortages.
NERC strongly recommends reliability rules for natural gas infrastructure to ensure reliable supply of fuel during extreme cold conditions. The report also recommends that state regulators and utility organizations extend service coverage of generators scheduled to be retired.
The report also recommends increasing transmission capacity. Because wind and sunshine are random across the country, a vast number of new transmission lines will be needed to move energy from where it is produced to where it is consumed.
The report pointed out that the challenges faced by the transmission construction were siting and permitting challenges, which led to project delays. Because these lines span multiple jurisdictions with their own requirements and, in some cases, private landowners who don’t want the lines to cross their properties, these projects can take years to get approved.
Kilty said the report’s findings are similar to those found in comprehensive resource planning documents produced by utility companies. They develop long-term (often decades) resource planning. Kilti said they’ve seen the same problem over the past few years.
They know that unless they can find a way to solve the problem, all kinds of problems will arise. This is what this document looks like. Kilti said it looked like they were now aware of the issues and trying to warn everyone.
Kilti added that with increasing reliance on natural gas, there were parallels with the energy crisis of the 1970s, which resulted in queues at petrol stations. In this case, the United States relies heavily on energy imports from OPEC. Kilti said one thing we learned in the 1970s was not to discriminate against energy. As a result, coal use grew rapidly starting in the 1980s but began to decline after 2008.
“Now we’re back to discriminating against energy and putting too much of a burden on natural gas,” Kilty said. Kilti added that while the report recommends increasing natural gas infrastructure, pipeline construction faces strong opposition from the Biden administration.
specific area
The report divides the United States into a dozen regions based on the sources of power generation available in the region.
The highest risk areas are the Midcontinent Independent System Operators (MISO), including Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri All or part of the states, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Louisiana and Texas.
Starting in 2028, these regions are expected to experience a 4.7 GW shortfall, assuming coal and nuclear generation capacity is retired as planned.
By 2033, MISO’s northern region will add more than 7 GW of natural gas generation capacity while phasing out more than 5 GW of coal generation capacity. By then, nearly 4 GW of solar energy projects are expected to come online.
The heart of the region, which includes all of Tennessee and parts of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri and Kentucky, is also at risk during the summer when air conditioning demands on the grid increase.
New England is at risk of power outages due to a cold snap or series of cold snaps, driven primarily by green electrification measures and increased demand for electric vehicle adoption, the report said. The report explains that electrification of the transport and heating sectors are the main drivers of the forecast increase in demand, while planned wind and solar generation resources will not be able to provide the dispatchable power needed to meet demand.
In the latest report, New York City has been listed as a high-risk area. The city will face a shortage starting in 2025 due to a state law aimed at reducing nitrogen oxide emissions, the report said. These laws would shut down natural gas and coal-fired power plants. The report notes that, largely in response to public policy, fossil fuel generators are being retired faster than new renewable energy generation is coming online.
The situation in the western half of the United States remains higher risk, but still better than in the center of the country. According to the report, the gap between supply and demand in Southwest Power Grid has narrowed, and excess production capacity has dropped significantly.
The region includes Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as New Mexico, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Iowa states, parts of Wyoming and Nebraska. The Texas power grid continues to have problems during hot summer nights and rare but dangerous cold snaps, according to the assessment.
NERC said extreme winter weather, such as Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, remains a serious problem and continued efforts are needed to ensure generators and fuel supplies are adequate and able to operate in adverse conditions. Texas continues to add significant amounts of solar energy to its grid, but the intermittency of the resource only increases the risk of blackouts, the report explains.
This year, NERC began conducting seasonal assessments focused on near-term resource adequacy. The results of the 2023/2024 winter assessment and the 2023 summer assessment are similar to the long-term assessment.
#Grid #regulator #warns #future #blackouts #natural #gas #support #renewables
Image Source : justthenews.com