Chris Carberry is the CEO of Explore Mars, Inc. and the author of “Music from Space” and “Alcohol in Space.” Joe Cassady is Director of Civil Space at L3Harris and Executive Vice President of Explore Mars, Inc. Expert Voices: Columns and Insights.
The United States appears to be entering a golden age of space exploration. Over the past few years, the United States has conducted an unprecedented number of launches, developed countless space hardware, and achieved countless other milestones. Yet despite these achievements, the United States risks ceding decades of leadership in space exploration and technology to China.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is making steady progress in all aspects of human and robotic capabilities.China’s aerospace achievements in the past few years include Long March 5B Heavy lifting vehicles and their construction Tiangong Space Station. In 2019, China became the first country to successfully achieve a “soft landing” of a robot Chang’e 4 A lunar rover-lander duo on the far side of the moon. A year later, the Chang’e-5 mission successfully completed the lunar sample return mission.
related: Space Force says China is advancing at “alarming speed” on final frontier
Most recently, on March 20, 2024, China launched the relay satellite DaNiao-2. This achievement will enable China to operate on the far side of the moon and lay the foundation for the Chang’e-6 lunar far side sampling return mission later this year, followed by the Chang’e-7 lander and lunar rover. The Chang’e-8 mission in 2028 and the Chang’e-8 mission in 2028 will include an in-situ lunar resource utilization (ISRU) demonstration. China has also announced a goal of possible ground missions for Chinese astronauts in 2030.
While these achievements still pale in comparison to what the United States has achieved over the past 60 years, the speed at which China is catching up is astounding.The U.S. could lose its leadership in space technology, according to 2022 Pentagon report As soon as 2045. The report notes that while U.S. industrial capacity is expanding, “the People’s Republic of China’s upward trajectory…is steeper, outpacing the pace significantly and requiring urgent action.” The report adds, “The United States lacks a clear and cohesive long-term vision and lacks An ambitious space strategy to sustain economic, technological, environmental, social and military (defense) leadership over the next half century and beyond.”
Why is this important? Investments in space exploration and development capabilities are investments in the nation. These efforts promote innovation and new markets as well as nationhood, diplomacy and national security, while ensuring that the United States remains the undisputed leader in scientific discovery, inspiration and STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education. While NASA is a civilian space agency, we cannot ignore the broader implications of giving up leadership in space.According to the report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission report to congress“, “Beijing not only has specific plans to explore space, but also industrially dominates space within the orbit of the moon and Earth. and electricity generation, although experts disagree on the feasibility of some of these activities.
The good news is that the United States still has a clear advantage in this competition.Over the past few years we have seen Artemis 1 The missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 3, are planned to take place before the end of 2027. In short, this is a race we are doomed to lose.
related: NASA’s Artemis Program: Everything you need to know
Given the progress the United States has made in recent years in developing space infrastructure and capabilities, why are we at risk of being overtaken? Part of the problem, Dean Cheng of the United States Institute of Peace told us, is that “while there is interest in space, it is not in the public imagination and attention like it was during World War II.” The Space Race of the 1960s, there were space launches every few weeks at the time. Ironically, as space becomes more routine, concerns about competition diminish. With so many other major national issues taking center stage, the administration and Congress also appear to be failing to properly focus on and promote what the new space race will truly consist of. Solid bipartisan support remains, but we seem to lack a sense of national urgency.
However, unlike most domestic programs, we plan to send humans to moon and Mars It’s something of a “unicorn” in our divided political environment. It represents a plan and goals that have enjoyed strong bipartisan support for more than a decade. This rare example of political unity should not be ignored. It should be seen as evidence that our elected officials can unite on certain issues — and doing so will help strengthen our nation for decades to come.
But we must not repeat the policy mistakes of the past. Apollo program 1960s and early 1970s. Although the Apollo program successfully put astronauts on the moon in the late 1960s, it was not a sustainable program from a budgetary or political perspective. More than 4% of the annual federal budget is spent on the Apollo program (while NASA’s current budget is less than 0.5% of the federal budget). The program also had only one important political goal – to defeat the Soviet Union in landing on the moon. It succeeds spectacularly in this regard. There is no doubt that this is an important milestone in human history. But after its success and the realization that the Soviet Union was giving up on its moon landing aspirations, there was little political incentive left to continue the program, so it was abruptly halted.
NASA’s current budget A significant increase is unlikely in the near future, but the United States can still develop sustainable plans that ensure we maintain our hard-won status as a preeminent spacefaring nation. We have an opportunity to win by leveraging the ingenuity and capabilities of American business and international partners, not military operations like the Apollo program. By doing so, we not only advance vital national interests, we stimulate new markets for innovation and strengthen our international alliances.
Are there risks? certainly. Virtually every great human achievement requires countless forms of risk. However, by accepting these risks, we will give ourselves a very real chance that the remainder of the 21st century will not only be the American century, but the century in which we cultivate major new markets and build stronger international relationships.
notes: A panel of experts will discuss this topic at the 2024 Humans on Mars Summit, May 7-8, 2024, at Jack Morton Auditorium at George Washington University in Washington, D.C.
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